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Of the alternative future scenarios we examined, only a few produced large spikes in armed conflict.īut the defense policy implications of these findings are not straightforward, since conflict trends do not follow straight lines and the U.S. Many factors have contributed to the long-term decline in conflict and most of those factors remain in place. Similarly, intrastate conflict (that is, civil wars and related political violence) had declined steadily for two decades before an uptick in conflict sparked by the wars in Syria and Ukraine in 2014.
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Interstate war (that is, war between states) has become a rare event. While too many different activities, events, scenarios, and developments could be envisaged for such a matrix to come up with easy and comprehensive answers, it nevertheless purports to provide initial guidance on how to address each particular possible activity, event, scenario, or development.From a decades-long perspective, the incidence of armed conflict has decreased. The current article presents a comprehensive effort to provide legal tools to determine where the law of outer space would overrule any incompatible law of armed conflict rules and vice versa, principally by constructing a matrix of prioritization. While both legal regimes can loosely claim to constitute leges speciales as compared to the lex generalis of general public international law, and hence are doctrinally superior to the latter, this does not solve the issue of hierarchy in application as between those two leges speciales. For the same reason, there is hardly any relevant State practice that could provide guidance here. This raises serious issues in the legal context, where space law so far has been premised on the hope that armed conflicts in outer space could be avoided whereas the law of armed conflict was not required so far to deal with the use of force in outer space. Unfortunately, the risk that this changes is considerably growing, and it can no longer be excluded that (armed) force will become used in outer space, either directed towards Earth or within outer space itself. So far, outer space has merely become involved in terrestrial armed conflicts as part of the supportive infrastructure for military activities.
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